UBP Closes Gap with CTP in ARIMA Poll Ahead of 6 December Elections

A poll by ARİMA Research & Consultancy, covering May to September 2026 and released ahead of the 6 December elections in Northern Cyprus, shows the National Unity Party (UBP) rising in every measurement. UBP's vote share grew by 7.5 points over the five months, reaching 31.2 percent in September, up from 23.7 percent in May.

The Republican Turkish Party (CTP) lost ground over the same period, falling from 49.3 percent in May to 39.7 percent in September, a decline of 9.6 points. As a result, the gap between the two parties narrowed from 25.6 points in May to 8.5 points in September, a total reduction of 17.1 points.

CTP remains in first place, but the survey indicates that party vote shares until 6 December will shape the course of the race.