Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas output and tax revenues to fall in 2027

Natural gas and condensate output at Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field in the Caspian Sea is expected to decline in 2027, along with profit tax revenues from the project, according to the country's draft state budget package for next year. Condensate production is projected at about 29.8 million barrels, down 0.5 million barrels or 1.7%, while natural gas output is expected to be around 26.7 billion cubic metres, down 0.2 billion, or 0.7%, compared with 2026 forecasts.

Profit tax revenues from the project are forecast at AZN 1.42 billion ($835.3 million) in 2027, down AZN 180 million ($105.9 million), or 11.3%, from the 2026 projection. Budget documents attribute the drop to lower hydrocarbon production and more conservative natural gas price assumptions, including a European hub gas price 6.8%, or $30, below the 2026 assumption.

The decline already appears in 2026 data. Between January and September, the Shah Deniz Alpha and Bravo platforms produced about 20 billion standard cubic metres of natural gas and 21 million barrels of condensate, down 5% and 12.5% year on year.