Kazakh oil overtakes Brent in price: experts explain the reasons

Kazakhstan's CPC Blend crude, which has historically sold below the Brent benchmark, now trades well above it. According to Oilprice, cited by Tengrinews.kz, CPC Blend was priced at $128 per barrel against $109.86 for Brent, a premium of about 16.5 percent. The reversal came in September 2026, and on some days in late September and October the gap exceeded $15–20 per barrel.

Analysts Askar Ismailov and Nurlan Zhumagulov, director of the Energy Monitor public fund, attribute the shift to the Middle East war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which forced European refineries to seek replacement crude. Zhumagulov said Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have also reduced supplies to Europe. Kazakhstan is now the second-largest supplier to the European market.

Ismailov warned that the two prices cannot be compared directly, since CPC Blend is priced CIF, including freight and insurance, while Brent is a futures contract. He said the $22 gap should not be treated as a pure premium. Higher export duties, which rise progressively above $105 per barrel, benefit the budget but weigh on smaller producers, while large operators gain more.