Did raising Kazakhstan's VAT to 16% bring the expected budget revenue?

Kurultai deputy Olga Perepechina said raising Kazakhstan's value added tax (VAT) from 12% to 16% has not brought the additional budget revenue the government expected. The government revises the base parameters of socio-economic forecasts every year, and none of the key 2027 indicators has held at its original level.

Perepechina said the 2027 plan targets own revenues rising by more than 16%, or about 2.8 trillion tenge, but that forecast rests on a lowered estimate of current revenues. She added that the VAT rise has not yet produced the expected growth in 2026 budget revenues and called for more accurate macroeconomic forecasting.

Statistics Bureau data show small and medium-sized businesses fell from 2,175,605 at the start of the year to 1,974,899 on July 1. Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, citing State Revenue Committee data, said business entities grew by 20.4% in the first six months of 2026. The two agencies count different indicators.