Kazakhstan to decide fate of fourth oil refinery by year-end

The Energy Ministry said the government will decide the fate of a planned fourth oil refinery in Kazakhstan by the end of the year. The move follows tension in the aviation kerosene market, where a shortfall of 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes had long been covered by Russia. Drone attacks and shutdowns at Russian refineries pushed prices up there, and the impact reached domestic air ticket prices.

The ministry plans to produce 750,000 tonnes of kerosene this year and 1.5 million tonnes by 2031. The plan also expands the existing refineries in Atyrau, Pavlodar and Shymkent, which process 17.5 million tonnes a year, to a combined capacity of 28.8 million tonnes. The proposed fourth plant, with a capacity of 10 million tonnes and a cost of $10 billion, is being considered in Mangistau, Atyrau, Ulytau or Turkistan.

Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has questioned the project's economic rationale and ordered a full recalculation by year-end. Experts cited in the article say domestic demand, the excise system that absorbs 95% of price increases, and crude supply are the key questions.