National Bank may cut base rate again: what it means for Kazakhstanis

The National Bank of Kazakhstan will announce its next base rate decision on 23 October. Most experts expect the rate to fall from 16.25% to 16%, although the regulator could pause due to inflation risks and an economic slowdown. The base rate is currently 16.25%, within a corridor of 15.25% to 17.25%. It would be the seventh decision this year, and the bank cut the rate at three consecutive meetings before this.

Financial expert Andrei Chebotarev says the base scenario is a 25 basis point cut to 16%, citing a worsened 2027 inflation forecast of 6.5% to 8.5%. According to an October survey by the Kazakhstan financiers association, 85% of experts expect the rate to fall to between 15.75% and 16%.

Economist Zhanat Nurgaliyev also expects a cut to about 16%, pointing to slowing inflation and weaker business and consumer activity. GDP grew 4.2% in the first nine months, while one-year inflation expectations fell from 10.4% to 9.7%. Nurgaliyev says it is too early to speak of a clear economic improvement, citing budget imbalances.