Azerbaijan’s $10.5bn trade surplus backs manat near 1.70 per dollar in 2026

Azerbaijan’s trade position supports confidence in the manat as the country enters the final months of 2026. In January–September, exports reached $23.865 billion and imports $13.346 billion, producing a trade surplus of $10.519 billion, according to customs data reported in October. Total foreign trade turnover rose 5.2% year on year to $37.211 billion, with exports up 28.3% and imports down 20.4%.

Official foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan rose from about $11.515 billion at the end of 2025 to $15.363 billion on September 30, 2026, an increase of 33.4%. The bank bought $1.5 billion in foreign currency in August, and Governor Taleh Kazimov said about $1 billion more could be bought by year-end. The analysis expects the manat to remain around 1.70 per dollar through December, provided current policy conditions continue. However, oil and gas made up 72.1% of exports in the first nine months, leaving earnings exposed to energy prices.