Zhumangarin presents three economic scenarios for Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's government has prepared three scenarios for the country's economic development in 2027, with GDP growth ranging from 3.2% to 5.9% depending on oil prices. Presenting a 2027-2029 socio-economic forecast at a Kurultai meeting, Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the government expects slower GDP growth among Kazakhstan's main trading partners. International organisations have also lowered their 2027 oil price forecast to $70.3 per barrel.

The optimistic scenario assumes oil at $85 per barrel and average growth of 5.9%. The base scenario assumes $70 per barrel with growth above 5%, while the pessimistic scenario assumes $50 per barrel and average growth of 3.2%. Under the base scenario, nominal GDP is expected to rise from 199.3 trillion tenge in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge in 2029.

The ministry also expects manufacturing to outpace mining, with agriculture growing at least 5% a year and construction growth rising from 16% in 2027 to 17.3% in 2029. Earlier, Zhumangarin named falling oil production, a strengthening national currency and slower consumer lending as the main factors restraining growth.