Kazakhstan real incomes growth to slow to 2.8% in 2026, AERC forecasts

According to the October Macroeconomic Review of Kazakhstan (MOK) by the Center for Applied Economic Research (AERC), real cash incomes of Kazakhstan's population are expected to grow by 2.8% in 2026 and by 1.8% in 2027. The previous forecast for 2026 was 4.5%. Real cash incomes fell by 0.7% in 2025, according to AERC data.

Nominal wages are rising. In the second quarter of 2026, the average wage was 486,388 tenge, 8.4% higher than a year earlier. However, with inflation at 10.3% in June, real wages were down 1.8% year on year. AERC lowered its forecast for nominal wage growth to 13.7% in 2026 (from 14.2% in July) and to 11.1% in 2027.

The review cites a cooling of aggregate demand and a revised outlook for the Comprehensive Plan for Income Growth for 2026–2029, much of which has not yet moved into implementation. Household final consumption is forecast to grow by 4.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.