Uzbekistan Central Bank Says Expectation of a Steadily Rising Dollar Is Changing

Deputy Central Bank Chairman Nodirbek Achilov said on 4 November that changes in Uzbekistan's currency market are helping to reduce inflation expectations among the public and entrepreneurs. He said the exchange rate had been the main factor shaping these expectations before 2025, when it was mostly rising, and that changes in the rate formed almost 60% of inflation expectations.

According to Achilov, since 2025 an increased supply of foreign currency and two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate have reduced that influence. Public and business views that the sum must rise 5-10% every year have also started to change. In September 2026, the public's inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 8.7% from 9.8% in August, while entrepreneurs' expectations eased to 9.2% from 9.6%. Experts expect about 6.3%. Actual annual inflation in September was 6.4%.

The Central Bank kept its key rate at 14% on 4 November, citing strong domestic demand and inflation risks. Achilov said the decline in public expectations was one reason a cut to 13.5% was put forward for consideration.