Uzbekistan central bank: end of tariff hikes could pave way for rate cut

Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan Nodirbek Achilov said at a press conference on 4 November that once tariff increases are completed, supply-side inflationary pressure will fall significantly. This would give the regulator more room to ease monetary policy.

According to Achilov, supply factors include structural inflation components linked to imports, energy tariffs and transport costs. A rise in propane prices and other planned tariff changes had a one-off effect on inflation, which will gradually be excluded from calculations.

The central bank kept its end-2027 inflation forecast at 5%. The key rate remains at 14%, partly to contain the secondary effects of tariff increases on inflation expectations and persistent inflation components. Achilov said inflation will mainly be shaped by external shocks and demand factors, which would create more opportunities to cut the rate. Spot had earlier reported that the proposed heating and hot water tariff increase exceeded the central bank's expectations.