Uzbekistan central bank keeps key rate at 14%, expects inflation at 5% target in 2027

Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan Nodirbek Ochilov announced the decisions at a press conference following the bank's latest key rate meeting. The key rate was kept unchanged at 14 percent per year. A cut to 13.5 percent was discussed, but the bank judged that keeping the rate at 14 percent was appropriate given existing inflation risks and strong domestic demand.

In September, headline inflation stood at 6.4 percent year on year and core inflation at 5.5 percent, while services inflation accelerated to 7 percent. GDP grew 8.3 percent in the first nine months of the year, and economic growth is expected to be around 8 percent by year-end.

Updated forecasts see inflation at around 7 percent at the end of 2026 and falling to the 5 percent target by the end of 2027. The central bank also conceptually approved its monetary policy guidelines for 2027-2029, with growth forecast at 7-7.5 percent in 2027 and 6.5-7.5 percent in 2028-2029 under the baseline scenario.