IMF Raises Uzbekistan Growth Forecast but Expects Wider External Deficit

The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Uzbekistan to 7.8% from 6.8%, and its 2027 forecast to 6.5% from 6%. The updated figures appear in the IMF's October World Economic Outlook report, published on October 12. The fund's October forecast also suggests Uzbekistan could rank second in Central Asia for 2026 growth, behind Kyrgyzstan.

The IMF now expects the current account deficit to reach 5.1% of GDP in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, compared with its June projections of 3.2% and 3.6%. The deficit was estimated at 3.9% in 2025. Average annual inflation is projected to ease to 6.9% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, while unemployment is seen falling to 4.3% in 2026.

According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan's economy grew 8.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. The World Bank had earlier raised its own Uzbekistan forecast to 7.9% for 2026. The IMF also projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.