Uzbekistan central bank holds 14% rate, raises inflation forecast to 7%

The board of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its key rate unchanged at 14% a year on November 4. The regulator raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 from 6.5% to 7%. The worsened forecast takes into account higher tariffs for hot water and heating, as well as a sharp rise in the price of propane.

Deputy Chairman Nodirbek Achilov told a press conference that the tariff changes were accompanied by mitigating measures. The basic electricity consumption norm in non-gasified areas was raised from 200 kWh to 350 kWh, and families included in the Unified Social Protection Register will receive one-time compensation. Achilov said the price of liquefied gas for households rose 2.5 times, and these one-off effects are already included in the current forecast.

Head of the Monetary Policy Department Samigjon Inogamov said the increase in hot water and heating tariffs had already been factored into the initial forecasts. However, the announced tariffs turned out to be somewhat higher than expected. Spot previously reported that the central bank had considered cutting the key rate to 13.5%. Inogamov said this factor was one of the main considerations in deciding to keep tight monetary conditions and set the rate at 14%.