Uzbekistan key rate could fall to single digits in three years, says central bank deputy

Uzbekistan's key rate could be lowered to single digits within the next three years, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Nodirbek Ochilov said at a press conference on 3 November. He said the 2027–2029 monetary policy guidelines have been approved. Under the document, the possibility of lowering the key rate below 10% would arise if inflation falls to the 5% target. The key rate is currently 14%.

Inflation fell to 6.4% in September. However, high domestic demand and external conditions keep inflation risks in place. Ochilov said the decision to keep the rate at 14% serves to prevent secondary effects of price changes from spreading and inflation expectations from strengthening.

At the Central Bank's board meeting on 3 November, two scenarios were discussed: keeping the rate at 14% or lowering it to 13.5%. Keeping it at 14% won more votes. Uzbekistan's GDP grew 8.3% in January–September 2026, and average real monthly wages rose 10.7%. Real economic growth for the year is expected to be around 8%.